Transformer lead times: a two-year queue abroad, an eight-month wait at home

Published 14 October 20266 min readMarket

Five years ago a utility in Europe or North America could expect a power transformer in about a year. Today the same order waits well over two. The shortage has become the single most discussed constraint on grid expansion worldwide, and it is now visible in India too, in a milder form. This note sets out the published numbers and what a buyer in India can do about them.

The global numbers

Wood Mackenzie's survey for the second quarter of 2025 put the average lead time for a power transformer at 128 weeks, down ten weeks from the quarter before but still around two and a half years. Generator step-up units averaged 143 weeks.
Distribution transformers have recovered faster: the same survey series shows them down to roughly 30 weeks, from much longer in 2023.
Wood Mackenzie's September 2025 analysis estimated the 2025 shortfall at about 30 percent of demand for power transformers and about 10 percent for distribution units.
Industry commentary during 2026 reports top-tier OEM slots for large units being quoted three to five years out. These figures come from procurement advisers rather than from the manufacturers, so treat them as indicative.

Why the queue is so long

Three causes compound each other. Demand rose first: renewable connections, electrification and, from 2024, data-centre loads that arrive in hundreds of megawatts at a time and are placed years ahead. Second, grain-oriented electrical steel (CRGO) for cores is made by a handful of mills worldwide and cannot be expanded quickly; it is the bottleneck every transformer maker shares, whatever the size of the unit. Third, the factories themselves take time: a new large transformer plant needs test bays, drying ovens and cranes that are on their own two to four year order books, which is why the Indian expansions announced this year are dated FY28 to FY32.

The Indian picture

India is in a better position than the West, because its manufacturing base is large and still expanding (CG Power alone expects to move from about 23,000 MVA in FY25 to 120,000 MVA), and because most of the domestic volume is distribution class, where lead times worldwide have recovered fastest. But the pressure is real. Reporting on the record 27 GW of solar installed in the first half of 2026, Mercom India noted that procuring a transformer for a utility-scale project "can involve an eight-month wait", alongside transmission connectivity and land as the slowest items on a developer's programme. Awards of transmission schemes also slowed in FY26, with 16 schemes awarded against 45 in FY25, which brokerage Motilal Oswal attributed to execution bandwidth rather than any fall in demand.

How to buy around it

From our own order book, the units that ship fastest share a few features. None of them cost the buyer anything in performance.

Standard losses for the rating. A loss schedule tighter than the IS 1180 or IS 2026 figure for the class means a non-standard core, which means waiting for a specific CRGO allocation.
Standard fittings. Conservator, Buchholz, OTI/WTI, PRV and radiators are stocked. A non-standard bushing, cable box or tap changer is ordered against the job and sets the delivery date.
Drawings approved early. The clock starts at drawing approval, not at purchase order. A buyer who returns the GA and rating-plate drawings within a week keeps the slot; one who takes a month usually loses it.
Inspection booked, not requested. Pre-shipment inspection by the purchaser or a third party is welcome, but a fixed date keeps a tested unit from sitting in the yard waiting for a visit.
Split large packages. A substation package that mixes a 10 MVA power transformer with distribution units, conductor and cable ships sooner when the long-lead item is ordered first and the rest follows under the same contract.

Aggarwal Global manufactures transformers from 16 kVA to 20 MVA at Bhiwani. For current delivery periods by rating, send the schedule to the contact page and we will quote a firm date.